Cement Prices Expected to Recover in Q4 FY26 as Industry Growth Picks Up: Systematix Research

Cement prices in India are likely to strengthen toward the fourth quarter of the 2025–26 fiscal year, even as the sector has faced soft pricing conditions in the near term, according to a report by Systematix Research.

The brokerage’s analysis forecasts that the cement industry will expand by approximately 9–10% in FY26, supported primarily by an acceleration in government capital expenditure across infrastructure and housing projects.

While prices remained under pressure during the third quarter, with overall realisations estimated to have declined by about 1.7% quarter-on-quarter, a gradual recovery is expected later in the fiscal. In regional markets, the southern states saw the sharpest price correction down about 2–3% QoQ while prices in the west, north and central regions held relatively steady.
Systematix highlighted that larger cement companies, which account for nearly 65% of total industry capacity, are well positioned to benefit from the expected uplift in demand.

The report also noted that cost advantages such as lower power and fuel expenses, along with reduced freight charges, may help cushion the impact of softer pricing. For the third quarter of FY26, the brokerage projected strong sector performance metrics including 10.5% volume growth, 9.7% revenue growth, and roughly 29% rise in profit after tax for its coverage universe.
Overall, while short-term pricing challenges may persist, the medium- to long-term outlook for the cement industry remains constructive, bolstered by demand recovery and favourable structural factors.